Analisis
Perekonomian Indonesia 2018 - 2019
Untuk Memenuhi Salah Satu Tugas
Mata Kuliah Bahasa Inggris Bisnis 2
Disusun
Oleh :
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Yudhi Giyantoro
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(17115318)
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FAKULTAS
ILMU KOMPUTER DAN TEKNOLOGI INFORMASI
UNIVERSITAS
GUNADARMA
2019
In
2018, the global economy is expected to grow higher than the realization in
2017 which reached 3.9 percent (Annual). This is supported by commodity prices
which are still on an upward trend that supports the growth of commodity
exporting countries. The developed and developing economies are expected to
increase. In the first quarter of 2018, the economy of the United States (US)
was able to grow 2.3 percent (yearly). Thus, investments that grew 7.3 percent
(YoY) and household consumption grew 1.1 percent (YoY). The Chinese economy
grew by 6.8 percent (YoY), driven by consumption growth in line with increasing
consumer confidence and wage labor. Meanwhile, the European Region grew by 2.4
percent (YoY) which was driven by the weakening of economic sentiment and the
appreciation of the Euro exchange rate against the Dollar. Meanwhile, Japan
grew slower than the previous quarter at 0.9 percent (YoY). This amount was
driven by consumption growth of 0.7 percent (YoY) and exports by 4.8 percent
(YoY). The Indonesian economy in the first quarter of 2018 grew by 5.1 percent
(YoY), slightly higher than the first quarter of 2017 but lower than the
previous quarter which grew by 5.2 percent (YoY). Because global factors
continue to grow and commodity prices also slow. From the Domestic side,
investment is needed by investment, exports that continue to grow, and stable
consumption of the community. Regionally, with the highest average economic
growth in Maluku and Papua.
The
Indonesian Balance of Payments (BOP) in the first quarter of 2018 reduced the
deficit by USD3.9 billion, down from the first quarter of 2017, which increased
by a surplus of USD4.5 billion and a surplus in the fourth quarter of 2017 of
USD1.0 billion. The lower deficit of the balance of payments in the first
quarter of 2018 is greater than the increase in terms of trade. In terms of
trade, the value of Indonesia's total exports in the first quarter of 2018 was
USD44,265.8 million, an increase of 8.78 percent (YoY) compared to with the same
period in 2017.
The value of non-oil and gas exports
increased, rising by 9.4 percent up to the first quarter of 2018. Realization
of state revenues and grants in the first quarter of 2018 reached Rp 333.8
trillion or 17.6 percent of the 2018 State Budget target. The realization increased
compared to the same period the previous year. This was driven by positive
performance both in terms of tax revenues and PNBP. Meanwhile, the realization
of state expenditure during the first quarter of 2018 reached Rp.419.5 trillion
or 28.8 percent of the national budget target. This realization was far higher
than in the first quarter of 2017 which amounted to 19.2 percent of the APBN
target. One of the increases was driven by increased social assistance spending
and subsidies from Rp. 9.5 trillion to Rp. 17.9 trillion.
Realization
of investment for Domestic Investment (PMDN) in the first quarter of 2018
reached IDR 76.4 trillion, greater than the realization of the first quarter of
2017 or growing by 11.0 percent (YoY). Meanwhile, the realization of Foreign
Investment (PMA) in the first quarter of 2018 grew by 11.5 percent (YoY). The
increase in FDI realization occurred in the tertiary sector with a growth of
57.9 percent, while the primary and secondary sectors experienced a decline
with negative growth of 25.0 percent and 4.5 percent respectively.
Car
production in the first quarter of 2018 reached 328,910 units, an increase of
3.9 percent compared to the first quarter of 2017. The increase in production
was driven by an increase in bus production of 5-24 tons (71.5 percent) and
trucks greater than 24 tons (68.7 percent). Meanwhile, motorcycle sales experienced
positive sales growth in the first quarter of 2018, after negative growth since
the third quarter of 2014. Sales reached 1.46 million or grew by 4.0 percent.
This increase in sales can be an indication of improvement in the purchasing
power of the middle class in line with the increase in commodity prices. Cement
sales in the first quarter of 2018 reached 16.4 million tons, an increase of
11.3 percent (YoY) driven by the acceleration of infrastructure development, a
million house programs, and physical development in rural areas.
Although
global conditions remain challenging, market players predict Indonesia's
economic conditions in 2019 will improve. The various pressures that characterize
2018 have begun to diminish. Head of Macroeconomics and Strategy Director of PT
Bahana TCW Investment Management Budi Hikmat explained that the global economic
and geopolitical situation would further support the return of foreign capital
inflows into Indonesia. This condition will also affect the economic condition
of Indonesia. Various external sentiments include the political situation in
the US after the Democratic party's victory in the mid-2018 election. The
strengthening of the US dollar throughout 2018 actually tends to increase the
US trade deficit against China.
In
addition, the tension of the US-China trade war seems to be more relaxed with
the existence of a ceasefire and domestic political pressure experienced by
Trump. "After President Trump's political defeat, China did not need to
rush to negotiate. Compromise seems to be achieved because both parties are
mutually needing each other from an economic standpoint, "Budi Hikmat said
through a written statement received by Kompas.com on Wednesday (2/1/2018). In
terms of China's economy, the current account of the world's second largest
economy giant is expected to score negative numbers for the first time in 2019.
This risks triggering the potential of China to weaken the yuan. Also read: For
the China Gloomy Economy, We Cough and Cough As for, global investors suspect
that the US economy has passed its peak and started to slow down even though it
remains fairly strong. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve's central bank
projections will continue to tighten liquidity even though it is not as fast as
in 2018. "There is a potential for the Fed to only need a maximum of twice
the increase (benchmark interest rate) during 2019," Budi added. Although
external pressure eased, Budi hoped for a policy to encourage purchasing power
and increase productivity, both in the manufacturing and tourism sectors.
"Our optimism is based on the courage of the government to take a
pre-emptive and prudent policy to distinguish Indonesia from developing
countries. However, to encourage investors to discriminate requires policies to
encourage purchasing power, reforms to increase competitiveness and productivity
and encourage foreign direct investment
[3.] https://batukarinfo.com/referensi/laporan-triwulanan-perekonomian-indonesia-juni-2019-lautan-peluang
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